SPC MD 396

MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE

Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042029Z - 042300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon across the area.  Convective trends
will be monitored for the possibility of a watch.

DISCUSSION...Warm sector convection has slowly deepened with time
with some intensification of cells as they cross over the stationary
front in southeastern Kentucky.  Updraft intensity so far has been
muted by a warm layer around 700 mb, but additional destabilization
and subtle height falls into the evening should result in more
robust updraft development over the next few hours.  Modest
low-level shear (per local VWPs) should support some tornado
potential, especially along the surface boundary, but damaging winds
and hail should be the primary threats with the strongest storms. 
With storm motion predominantly to the northeast, storms will
eventually cross to the cool side of the boundary, resulting in hail
being the primary threat and eventual weakening of storms.  The
coverage and intensity of storms will be monitored regarding the
need for a watch.

..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37248698 37718627 37888512 37818426 37738321 37458279
            36968283 36528334 36298384 36118467 36038531 36018635
            36118697 36148701 36438723 37248698 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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2025-04-04 20:34:04