Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 389

   Mesoscale Discussion 0389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

   Areas affected...parts of cntrl/nrn AR...adjacent wrn TN....sern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040706Z - 040900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may persist and/or increase
   through daybreak across parts of central into northern Arkansas and
   adjacent portions of the Mid South.  Stronger cells could pose a
   risk for severe hail.  It is not clear that a watch is needed, but
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered, moderately strong thunderstorm development
   has persisted above shallow cold air to the north of sharp stalled
   surface front (southeast of Memphis into the El Dorado and
   Shreveport vicinities), roughly focused along the baroclinic zone
   around 925 mb.  This has been supported by forcing for ascent
   associated with low-level warm advection, despite the presence of
   inhibition associated with warm layers aloft, beneath broadly
   anticyclonic mid/upper flow.

   Downstream of a short wave perturbation progressing
   north-northeastward across the Texas South Plains vicinity, the
   focusing low-level baroclinic zone is forecast to shift northward
   during the next few hours, perhaps across and north of a Hot
   Springs-Memphis line by 12Z.  Model output suggests that this may be
   accompanied by increasing, elevated thunderstorm development to the
   north of it, with thermodynamic profiles and convective-layer shear
   perhaps still supportive of the risk for severe hail in isolated to
   widely scattered stronger cells.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35449411 36319185 36518997 35308968 34599032 33779224
               34049316 35449411 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN