Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 386

   Mesoscale Discussion 0386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...parts of western Kentucky...western Tennessee...far
   northeastern Arkansas...far southern Illinois...and far southern
   Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 040158Z - 040330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of large hail are possible this
   evening across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi
   Valley. A watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing near the Mississippi River
   have displayed lowered correlation coefficient and near-0
   differential reflectivity colocated with large reflectivity, which
   are signs of large hail production. These storms are elevated above
   a cool boundary layer but have approximately 1000 J/kg MUCAPE per
   mesoanalysis, which is sufficient buoyancy for hail production.
   Also, most of this buoyancy is above the freezing level per
   short-term RAP profiles. Hodographs above the surface stable layer
   display strong deep-layer shear (60+ kts effective bulk shear). Some
   limiting factors for severe hail may be the lack of steep lapse
   rates and therefore the relatively skinny buoyancy profiles.
   Additionally, buoyancy decreases with eastward extent, which may
   limit the longevity of the hail risk. However, given recent radar
   trends, a watch a may be needed to cover the hail risk.

   ..Supinie/Hart.. 04/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35258929 35568992 36229039 36639018 37308847 38048617
               38238513 38058480 37718473 37028576 36358676 35298885
               35258929 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN