Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 385

   Mesoscale Discussion 0385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

   Valid 040056Z - 040200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to have decreased across much of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108, though isolated severe hail remains
   possible across portions of northeast Arkansas into far southeast
   Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...The latest regional VWP data suggests that the core of
   the southwesterly low-level jet is advancing eastward away from the
   watch area, and this seems to be favoring a decrease in overall
   thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Nevertheless, the LZK 00Z
   sounding sampled 56 kt of effective shear and modestly steep
   midlevel lapse rates above the cool/stable boundary layer (yielding
   around 1700 J/kg MUCAPE). This will continue to support elevated
   supercell structures capable of producing isolated severe hail. This
   risk should generally be greatest across the eastern portion of the
   watch area, and extending northeastward into far southeast
   MO/northwest MS/southwest KY -- where the aforementioned low-level
   jet will tend to focus thunderstorm activity. While isolated severe
   hail potential will persist northeast of the watch, the downstream
   severe risk appears too localized/marginal for an additional watch
   at this time, though convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman.. 04/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34699284 35219258 35769212 36759039 36888980 36788920
               36558908 36188934 34569171 34449252 34699284 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN