Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 379

   Mesoscale Discussion 0379
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

   Valid 031911Z - 032115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms across eastern Kentucky continue to pose a threat
   of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm-air advection continues to
   support thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky.  Afternoon insolation
   and a narrow axis of better moisture (upper 60s dewpoints) extending
   into eastern Kentucky have resulted in MLCAPE values approaching
   1000 J/kg. The deep-layer flow and shear (over 50 kts per
   mesoanalysis and local VWPs) are more than sufficient for organized
   storm modes.  Currently, the dominant convective mode of north-south
   oriented bands along the differential heating zone seems to favor
   severe-wind potential at this time; however, the strong low-level
   shear would support tornado potential pending a more favorable
   convective mode.

   ..Jirak.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37058597 37458492 37808397 37838326 37858314 37768271
               37498253 37238280 37158316 37078347 36998401 36778495
               36728558 36728576 37058597 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN