Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 227

   Mesoscale Discussion 0227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...far southeastern Georgia into the northern and
   central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...

   Valid 161539Z - 161715Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 52.
   Damaging gusts should be the main threat, though a couple of
   tornadoes still cannot be ruled out through at least early
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters and transient supercells
   continue to progress across far southeast GA into the northern and
   central FL Peninsula, with additional storms over the eastern Gulf
   poised to move ashore over the next few hours. These storms are
   progressing toward a heated airmass, with surface temperatures
   already exceeding 80 F in multiple locales. Given 70+ F surface
   dewpoints, 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. While strong flow
   aloft is contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, the
   northward advancement of the upper trough is resulting in deep-layer
   ascent and the accompanying low-level jet to drift away from the FL
   peninsula. Regional VADs show a slight decreasing trend in low-level
   shear. However, these VADs still show adequate hodograph elongation
   and curvature near the GA/FL border to support a couple of
   tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging gusts should remain the primary
   severe threat this afternoon.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28638324 29368322 30928265 31348230 31518170 31508147
               31368138 30468137 29828119 29408125 28838180 28648229
               28588279 28638324