Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 226

   Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0938 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...south-central into eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161438Z - 161615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some damaging wind gusts are possible this morning to
   early afternoon across south-central and eastern Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed along the cold front in
   central Kentucky. Ahead of these storms, dewpoints are in the mid
   50s with abundant sunshine. MLCAPE is currently around 250 J/kg and
   may increase to around 500 J/kg by later this morning. The front is
   oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow across this region which is
   not overly favorable for a wind producing line of storms. However,
   strong lower tropospheric flow is present (vertically increasing to
   60 knots by 3km per JKL VWP) and in the presence of thunderstorms
   and steepening low-level lapse rates, some of this stronger flow may
   mix to the surface. A watch is not anticipated.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   36788612 37368511 37808443 38098345 38198273 38038235
               37598236 36878292 36608338 36628479 36648586 36718611
               36788612