Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 224

   Mesoscale Discussion 0224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...northeast South Carolina...eastern and central
   North Carolina...and southeast Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

   Valid 161349Z - 161545Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

   SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization is occurring across eastern North
   Carolina. A downstream tornado watch will eventually be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms, well oriented to the
   deep-layer shear vector, is moving across south-central North
   Carolina and northern South Carolina. Currently instability is
   relatively weak ahead of this line (MLCAPE <250 J/kg). However,
   visible satellite shows some breaks in the clouds and temperatures
   have already increased 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit across eastern
   North Carolina. If temperatures warm into the low 70s with the
   presence of low to mid 60s dewpoints already in place, sufficient
   instability should develop to maintain and perhaps strengthen this
   line of storms at is moves east through the morning and into the
   early afternoon. If weak destabilization occurs as current
   observational trends suggest, a downstream tornado watch will
   eventually be needed across eastern North Carolina and southeast
   Virginia.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33267915 33667981 34458008 35458019 36237999 36807956
               37357866 37517774 37447666 37217623 37027595 36617578
               36247566 35927550 35647540 35327544 35187551 35077590
               34707634 34527653 34627675 34597709 34287762 34067778
               33747792 33857828 33687874 33267915