Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 223

   Mesoscale Discussion 0223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...far southern South Carolina...and
   northern Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...52...

   Valid 161331Z - 161500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51, 52 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado threat to continue through the
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells continues to
   move east across the Southeast. Instability is mostly weak (250-500
   J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of this line with slightly better instability
   across north Florida where upper 60s dewpoints are present. This
   line of storms has now moved well ahead of the synoptic cold front.
   Therefore, given the weakening forcing, the strongest storms will
   likely be in north Florida this morning. However, very strong
   low-level shear is present ahead of the entire line of storms with
   over 400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CLX VWP where a 60 knot low-level jet
   is present. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging wind gusts
   and brief tornadoes will be possible through the morning despite the
   relatively weak instability and forcing.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29598426 30548354 31738248 32138206 32538172 32868161
               33228139 33438078 33247988 32997957 32827953 32528005
               32228044 31898086 31138126 30518134 30208132 29728233
               29418306 29598426