Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 206

   Mesoscale Discussion 0206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...southern Mississippi to central Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46...

   Valid 151831Z - 152030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells are likely to persist through the
   afternoon with intense to violent tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells have developed from central
   to south-central Mississippi. One of these supercells has already
   produced a likely violent tornado across Walthall county. The
   environment downstream of these supercells continues to destabilize,
   which will maintain the threat through the afternoon and likely into
   the evening. Eventually, these storms will likely move east of the
   upper 60s dewpoints. However, mid 60s dewpoints, which are expected
   to be prevalent across Alabama, should be sufficient for a continued
   intense to violent tornado threat given the continued favorable
   kinematics and the presence of already strong supercells. This is
   supported by the 17Z WoFS with more than half of the ensemble
   members showing one or more long track UH swaths from south-central
   Mississippi to central Alabama through the afternoon. 

   Increased forcing with the ejecting mid-level jet max, has led to a
   large amount of additional showers and small thunderstorms in the
   vicinity of these storms. This may lead to occasional disruptions of
   tornadic circulations, but expect the strongly dynamic pressure
   perturbations associated with the ongoing supercells to persist
   through the entire afternoon.

   ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   33578809 33858764 33638710 33288693 32778680 32448685
               31838781 30908946 30868967 30889019 31149036 31499024
               32228959 33088875 33578809