Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 201

   Mesoscale Discussion 0201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

   Valid 151620Z - 151745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to intense tornadoes are likely through
   mid-afternoon across northern Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Several mature, embedded supercells are starting to
   emerge out of the larger area of precipitation across northwest
   Mississippi with additional development possible from showers
   evident on radar across northeast Mississippi. One of these
   supercells, in Humphreys County, has had a persistent very strong
   mid-level mesocyclone and tops over 50kft. In addition, structural
   damage has been reported from this storm indicating the potential
   for a tornado. This supercell and any other mature supercells which
   develop are expected to persist east across the state through the
   early-to-mid afternoon. 0-1km SRH from the GWX VWP is around 350
   m2/s2 and increasing. The instability is not as great across
   northern Mississippi where extensive cloud cover has muted daytime
   heating somewhat. However, there is still ample instability for
   maintenance of ongoing supercells. The combination of instability
   and shear has yielded STP values of 2 to 3 which should increase
   through the early afternoon as both shear and instability increase.
   The 15Z WoFs shows several moderate low-level rotation tracks across
   the northern part of the state over the next several hours which
   supports expectations based on the aforementioned observational
   data. Therefore, several strong to intense tornadoes are likely over
   the next 2 to 3 hours across northern Mississippi within PDS Tornado
   Watch 45.

   ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32759097 33689042 34588951 34788871 34708831 33618834
               33048886 32669037 32759097