Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 168

   Mesoscale Discussion 0168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132120Z - 132315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A robust supercell moving across northwest/north-central
   AL will pose a large hail and severe wind threat for the next 1-3
   hours. While very large hail is possible, this threat is expected to
   remain sufficiently limited spatially to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, a robust supercell has
   emerged from a cluster of relatively transient convection associated
   with weak low-level warm advection and ascent in proximity to a
   mid-level vorticity maximum. This cell is expected to continue
   propagating southeastward over the next 1-3 hours along a diffuse
   baroclinic zone near 925 mb. As this cell migrates southeast, it
   will be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level winds, which will
   likely help maintain storm longevity/organization. As such, a
   downstream corridor of locally higher severe hail/wind threat is
   becoming apparent. While 1-inch hail stones have already been
   reported from this storm, MRMS MESH suggest hail stones upwards of
   1.5 to 2.0 inches will be possible. Although the regional severe
   threat will likely be focused with this cell, additional cells may
   sufficiently intensify to pose a large hail threat.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 03/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34358814 34638805 34848778 34938738 34928705 34198563
               33988553 33718562 33468614 33408663 33468708 33528746
               33748779 34148805 34358814