Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 163

   Mesoscale Discussion 0163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29...

   Valid 122327Z - 130130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts continues
   across portions of eastern Texas in and near WW #29.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of generally
   short-lived/disorganized updrafts near/ahead of a central Texas
   dryline.  Daytime heating/warm temperatures have allowed what
   low-level moisture previously existed to become well-mixed through a
   fairly deep afternoon boundary layer.  Therefore, despite steep
   mid-level lapse rates, storms have thus far struggled to organize --
   likely in part due to the relatively dry troposphere.

   With that said, storms are approaching an axis of greater
   mixed-layer CAPE (per RAP-based objective analysis).  As such, and
   given the favorable background kinematic environment, risk for hail
   and locally damaging wind gusts continues within WW #29.

   ..Goss.. 03/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30279776 31039710 31659609 32329583 32779499 32769409
               31619420 30639450 30099651 30279776