Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 49

   Mesoscale Discussion 0049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Jefferson and northern Lewis counties
   downstream of Lake Ontario

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 211628Z - 212230Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow to continue downstream of Lake
   Ontario to continue for another 10 to 12 hours. Snowfall rates of 2+
   inches per hour expected.

   DISCUSSION...A strong lake-effect snow band which developed
   yesterday evening and slowly shifted north has now stalled over the
   same location since around 10Z this morning with snowfall rates in
   excess of 2 inches per hour. Forecast soundings show a similar wind
   direction and EL depth which should support similar intensity
   through at least 00Z. After this time, winds become more erratic and
   the depth of the convective layer will become more shallow which
   will likely result in a weaker, more erratic snow band. However,
   until that time, 2+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected to
   persist through the afternoon and into the early evening across the
   same area across southern Jefferson and northern Lewis counties.

   ..Bentley.. 01/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43947628 44037579 44007543 43897536 43767560 43717592
               43697613 43707625 43847635 43947628