Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 37

   Mesoscale Discussion 0037
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of North and west-central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191232Z - 191430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be
   possible this morning into early afternoon in parts of North/Central
   Florida. A watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures in central Florida have slowly risen into
   the low 70s F this morning. A line of storms moving eastward south
   and east of Gainesville have shown some intensification as they have
   encountered the modestly unstable air. Given the wind fields in
   place, this activity, though perhaps only weakly surface based, will
   be organized. Strong/damaging gusts may occur as muted surface
   heating continues into the afternoon. Though surface winds are
   veered, area VAD profiles do show sufficient SRH for a brief tornado
   in the strongest storms. The observed 12Z Tampa sounding showed
   relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. This, combined with modest
   MLCAPE, should keep the severe threat marginal/isolated.

   Additional storms are noted offshore west of the Tampa vicinity.
   These storms should eventually approach the shore and pose a similar
   wind gust/brief tornado threat.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 01/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27758307 28818288 29458251 29848173 29888122 29328101
               28598194 28058232 27648275 27688287 27758307