Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2294

   Mesoscale Discussion 2294
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...parts of east TX to western LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281225Z - 281430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Surface-based supercell potential is expected to rapidly
   increase in the late morning to midday. A tornado watch will likely
   be needed by 14-15Z.

   DISCUSSION...The east TX to western LA warm-moist sector
   characterized by 66-71 F surface dew points has roughly reached a
   TPL to 20 S CRS to IER line as of 12Z. Pervasive cloud coverage will
   slow diabatic surface heating after sunrise, but the rich moisture
   profile will only need a few degrees of warming to yield a marked
   increase in surface-based convection. This will be favorably timed
   with strengthening large-scale ascent and flow fields ahead of a
   pronounced shortwave trough near central TX. 06Z ECMWF and recent
   HRRR guidance suggest scattered to widespread warm-moist sector
   thunderstorms will occur by midday. A strengthening kinematic
   profile should foster several to numerous supercells. Tornado
   potential will become more favorable with eastern extent in TX to
   LA, as hodographs enlarge midday into the afternoon.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30789744 31429734 32089652 32599457 32629384 32639289
               32189221 31419209 30989212 30759305 30769313 30689438
               29799642 30369727 30789744