Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2291

   Mesoscale Discussion 2291
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern Mississippi into western
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271832Z - 272100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes will
   persist into the afternoon hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms persist along the MS/AL border,
   near the Gulf Coast, and these storms have shown some brief bouts of
   low-level rotation over the past several hours. Regional VADs across
   eastern MS into AL show gradually shrinking hodographs as the
   low-level jet continues to drift northeast, away from the warm
   sector. However, a robust mid-level trough is beginning to
   overspread the southern MS Valley, which may help preserve a
   favorable deep-layer shear field along the Gulf Coast during the
   afternoon. Continued surface heating may support MLCAPE approaching
   the 750-1000 J/kg range given mid 60s F dewpoints near the coast.

   Overall, storms should continue to oscillate in intensity through
   mid afternoon, with continued instances of low-level rotation
   possible. Isolated damaging gusts and tornadoes remain the main
   threats. The most immediate threat exists with storms approaching
   the Mobile Bay area. However, convection has attempted to intensify
   over far east-central MS with the approach of the mid-level trough.
   Confidence in these storms reaching severe limits is overall lower,
   but a stray damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out with any
   storms that intensify in this regime. Either way, the isolated
   nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30218984 31398957 32048931 32698896 33048871 33408835
               33248802 32728788 32038767 31408739 30898727 30548728
               30278757 30118862 30218984