Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2290

   Mesoscale Discussion 2290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0708 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

   Areas affected...central Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271308Z - 271415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A low-probability, brief tornado risk may persist through
   the rest of mid-morning across southeast Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...A confluent band of mainly discrete convection has
   persisted over the past couple hours, generally perpendicular to a
   northwest/southeast-oriented warm front that is roughly approaching
   a PIB to MOB line. Transient supercell structures have been noted,
   and these may persist through about 15Z. The 12Z LIX RAOB sampled a
   bit of near-surface stability, but otherwise contained a
   conditionally favorable buoyancy/shear space for a supercell
   tornado. As noted in the 13Z SWODY1, the background synoptic
   environment is unlikely to support substantially greater
   organization. In conjunction, with further waning of large-scale
   ascent, overall tornado potential in this area should be brief and
   temporally diminish by late morning.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31398902 31288834 30968788 30828772 30268808 30238845
               30278896 30228946 30288971 30538972 31188918 31398902