Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2288

   Mesoscale Discussion 2288
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

   Areas affected...Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 716...

   Valid 270253Z - 270430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 716 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some tornado risk continues across Louisiana this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly dynamic short-wave trough is ejecting across
   the Arklatex this evening. In response to this feature, LLJ is
   strengthening across northern LA. Strong low-level warm advection
   appears to be mostly responsible for a corridor of strong-severe
   convection that is propagating east across ww716. Within this
   corridor, a few longer-lived supercells are embedded. One,
   potentially tornadic supercell, is moving northeast across Rapides
   Parish. Latest diagnostic data suggests this is near the northern
   limits of surface-based buoyancy, but very strong shear may allow
   this updraft to persist a bit farther downstream before it weakens
   appreciably.

   While a few supercells may spread just east of the watch into
   western portions of JAN/LIX CWA, latest thinking is updrafts should
   gradually weaken as they approach the MS delta region.

   ..Darrow.. 12/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29729416 32159338 32159185 29739266 29729416