Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 15, 2024
Updated: Sun Dec 15 09:14:03 UTC 2024
D4
Wed, Dec 18, 2024 – Thu, Dec 19, 2024
D7
Sat, Dec 21, 2024 – Sun, Dec 22, 2024
D5
Thu, Dec 19, 2024 – Fri, Dec 20, 2024
D8
Sun, Dec 22, 2024 – Mon, Dec 23, 2024
D6
Fri, Dec 20, 2024 – Sat, Dec 21, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150912
SPC AC 150912
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A surface cold front will move south and east across the eastern and
southeastern U.S. on Day 4/Wed, moving offshore the Gulf and
Atlantic coasts by early Day 5/Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible near the cold front across parts of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Day 4/Wed. However, weak instability and
only modest vertical shear is expected to limit severe thunderstorm
potential.
After Day 4/Wed, a mean upper level trough will persist over the
eastern half of the CONUS, while an amplified upper ridge develops
over the West. As the early period cold front continues to intrude
southward across the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will
become scant across the CONUS, and offshore trajectories will
persist through the period. This overall pattern will result in
limited thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Wed, and severe storms
are not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/15/2024
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