SPC AC 150759
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as
a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the
northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday.
The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over
the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level
southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend
from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the
Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat
northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s
dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this
warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However,
stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and
large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector.
Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and
poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential
is expected to be low.
..Leitman.. 12/15/2024
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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