SPC AC 141717 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east along the international border in the vicinity of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into northwest TX by 12z Monday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused further north). As a result, isolated to scattered, mostly elevated, thunderstorms are anticipated after 06Z from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Arkansas and southern Missouri, along and ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front. Instability is expected to be mostly weak, particularly farther north where greater forcing will be present. Therefore, despite favorable shear across the warm sector, storm mode is expected to be messy given the lack of stronger buoyancy, weak lapse rates, and the tendency for storms to be undercut by the surface front through time. The expectation of limited storm organization amid weak instability precludes the need for a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/14/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
2024-12-14 17:21:20