What’s behind all the recent extreme flooding?

More than 161 people still missing in Texas Hill Country nearly one week after historic flooding. FOX Weather Meteorologist Haley Meier has the latest from Kerrville.

Recent flash floods in Kerrville, Texas; Ruidoso, New Mexico; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and Chicago have made headlines, leaving many to wonder if such events are becoming more common or are we simply noticing them more.

The answer, according to the FOX Forecast Center, is likely a mix of both, as a combination of typical and atypical factors contributed to these historic events.

Every year, the National Weather Service issues more than 4,000 flash flood warnings across the United States as heavy rains overwhelm drainage systems and inundate low-lying areas.

Some communities are more vulnerable than others, largely because of their terrain and soil conditions, with training thunderstorms a leading cause of many of the flooding incidents.

In the Texas Hill Country and the Desert Southwest, for example, soils were relatively dry and compact when recent rainfall occurred, leading to a dangerous flood threat. When remnants of tropical systems or seasonal monsoon storms hit these dry landscapes, the water runs off quickly instead of soaking in, creating significant flooding.

1-1,000 year rainfall event in North Carolina on 7/4/2025

(Colorado State University / FOX Weather)

DEADLY WALLS OF WATER PUMMEL COMMUNITIES ACROSS THREE STATES IN JUST ONE WEEK, SPAWN UNPRECEDENTED DEVASTATION

While recent bouts of rainfall have been extreme, they were not unprecedented, as past hurricanes and monsoonal events still hold all-time records for precipitation. 

Hurricane Harvey dumped nearly 61 inches of rain on southeast Texas in 2017, while Tropical Storm Claudette brought 42 inches to Alvin, Texas, in 1979.

By comparison, the recent 10 to 20 inches of rain that fell across Central Texas may seem less impressive from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, but it struck especially vulnerable areas, amplifying its impact.

In Ruidoso, New Mexico, 3 to 4 inches of monsoonal rain fell on burn scars from previous wildfires, triggering life-threatening flooding and debris flows – though the rainfall amounts were far below the state record of 11.3 inches set in 1941. 

In North Carolina, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal produced a narrow but intense band of rain along the Haw River, overwhelming tributaries, but not near the state’s 36 inches produced during Hurricane Florence.

And in Chicago, torrential storms along a slow-moving frontal boundary produced remarkable rainfall rates of more than 2 inches per hour in a highly urbanized setting, which caused significant flooding.

The National Weather Service says extreme rainfall events like these can be categorized as “1,000-year floods,” meaning they have just a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year, but seeing at least four of these types of events during a week is enough to draw attention.

FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray is live from Ruidoso, New Mexico, to share the latest updates on the rain and flooding in the area.

According to data from Colorado State University, about half a dozen to a dozen days each year see a reported 1,000-year rain event somewhere in the U.S.

So far, in 2025, nine such days have been observed, but because most have occurred in sparsely populated areas, the precipitation events drew little attention until the recent calamities. 

Increased awareness, driven by smartphones and social media, makes it seem like heavy rainfall events happen more often than they do.

Psychologists call this effect “availability heuristic,” where people overestimate the likelihood of an event based on how easily it comes to mind.

When flooding dominates headlines and timelines, the events can feel more common than statistics suggest.

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At the same time, a changing climate is increasing the likelihood of heavier rainfall events.

Warmer air can hold more moisture, fueling more intense downpours and flooding.

According to Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that analyzes and reports on climate matters, drought conditions – worsened by climate change – can also make soil less able to absorb water, increasing the potential for runoff and flooding.

Though it is difficult to attribute any single rainstorm directly to climate change, the trend toward more extreme rainfall is growing.

The recent floods serve as a reminder to address vulnerabilities ahead of time – by building on higher ground, ensuring you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and making preparations before the next disaster strikes.