Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1495

   Mesoscale Discussion 1495
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...northeast South Dakota and
   western Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 282149Z - 282315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms in eastern North Dakota could continue to
   develop southward with the need for a watch in the short term.  New
   storm development is also possible in the next couple of hours
   across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota, where a
   separate watch could be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing across east central ND near and just
   ahead of a surface cold front, and downstream from subtle/embedded
   speed maxima moving generally eastward over ND.  Given already
   minimal convective inhibition and a sufficiently moist environment,
   new development appears likely along the south flank of the ongoing
   storms, with an eventual storm cluster possible that will move
   toward west central MN through late evening.  Observed wind profiles
   are not particularly strong in the vicinity of the developing
   storms, so a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells appears
   more probable, with the primary threats being large hail and severe
   outflow gusts for the next few hours.

   Farther south and later this afternoon/evening, more discrete storm
   development will be possible across northeast SD in a zone of
   deepening cumulus.  Wind profiles will become a little more
   favorable for supercells in this area and a more discrete storm mode
   is expected initially, so there will be some concern for a couple of
   tornadoes.  A separate watch may be needed late this afternoon from
   northeast SD into west central MN.

   ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46919822 47309810 47519770 47729712 47789667 47429627
               46739583 45999575 45639569 45369572 44969604 44779645
               44649724 44709765 45059796 46069787 46519798 46919822 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN