Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1492

   Mesoscale Discussion 1492
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

   Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281851Z - 282015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts may initially
   develop along a cold front in eastern North Dakota, and could be
   sustained through late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Early storm development is underway along the weak
   surface cold front, likely aided by a minor mid-level impulse
   upstream over central ND. Recent HRRR runs have trended towards this
   earlier and farther north regime, unlike the bulk of 12Z HREF
   guidance which indicated that far northeast SD into west-central MN
   will be the genesis region later today. With influence of a decayed
   MCS likely delaying that latter regime until evening, the short-term
   severe threat into late afternoon may be confined to a portion of
   eastern ND into far northwest MN. Low-level winds should remain weak
   and generally veered, yielding minimal hodograph curvature. But this
   combined with moderate buoyancy/deep-layer shear should result in
   primarily a large hail threat. Overall storm coverage could be
   fairly isolated, especially given the lack of cumulus ahead of the
   front this early in the afternoon.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47409879 48039857 48469814 48429711 48139666 47619648
               46729635 46349652 46129671 46109842 46589912 47139894
               47409879 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN