Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1487

   Mesoscale Discussion 1487
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...Western
   Minnesota...Northeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280547Z - 280645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A lingering isolated severe threat is expected over the
   next few hours from southeast North Dakota into northeast South
   Dakota and western Minnesota. A few severe gusts and hail will be
   the primary threats. The severe threat is expected to become
   increasingly marginal, and WW 468 will be allowed to expire at
   0600Z.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from KMVX shows
   a cluster of strong thunderstorms, with a few embedded potentially
   severe cells. These storms are located to the northeast of a 1006 mb
   low, along the eastern edge of strong instability where the RAP has
   MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. A shortwave trough, evident
   on water vapor imagery, along with warm advection will provide
   support for continued convective development over the next few
   hours. Overnight RAP forecast soundings have effective shear near 40
   knots with mid-level lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. This should
   support an isolated severe threat with potential for a few severe
   gusts and hail. However, a capping inversion is forecast to
   gradually increase, which combined with weakening instability,
   should result in the severe threat becoming more marginal with time.

   ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47319604 47059562 46579531 45989532 45509567 45339647
               45419852 45609932 45899963 46329977 46749964 47099940
               47369882 47449730 47409653 47319604 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN