Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1485

   Mesoscale Discussion 1485
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

   Valid 280434Z - 280530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms in North Dakota could threaten extreme northern
   South Dakota, which could justify a local watch extension.  However,
   the overall severe threat has diminished and the majority of the
   watch can be cancelled or allowed to expire at 05z.

   DISCUSSION...The earlier bowing cluster has moved southeast of
   severe thunderstorm watch 469, and the other convection has
   weakened.  Though some elevated convection could form later tonight
   atop the lingering cold pools, the near-surface stabilization
   beneath a warm elevated mixed layer suggests that new severe storm
   development is unlikely.  The ongoing tornadic supercells in south
   central ND could just cross into northern SD, and a small watch
   extension may need to be considered for northern SD.  The severe
   threat farther to the south appears to have ended and the majority
   of the watch can be cancelled or allowed to expire at 05z.

   ..Thompson.. 06/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45019789 43549707 43059748 43129840 43919920 44739958
               45969991 45999938 45969846 45019789 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN