Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1475

   Mesoscale Discussion 1475
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...western/central ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 272036Z - 272230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms may develop over the next couple
   hours, with greater storm coverage by early evening. Very large to
   giant hail will be possible with the most intense supercell or two,
   along with tornado and severe wind threats. Watch issuance is
   expected with moderate uncertainty on timing.

   DISCUSSION...A focused corridor of supercell development is
   anticipated this evening, perhaps as early as 22-23Z along a weak
   surface trough/front in western ND. More probable storm development
   is anticipated towards sunset, within the exit region of a
   strengthening low-level jet over SD/NE. The initially subtle/weak
   forcing for ascent lends some uncertainty to sustained storm
   timing/location. But once storms are sustained, weak low-level winds
   veering to moderate mid-level and stronger upper-level westerlies
   will yield a favorable hodograph for splitting supercell structures.
   In conjunction with very steep mid-level lapse rates with southern
   extent (as sampled by the 18Z UNR sounding) and ample buoyancy, this
   type of pattern should favor a risk for baseball to softball-size
   hail in a supercell or two before storms congeal into an MCS
   tonight. This seems most probable across central ND this evening.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   48969906 47899898 46669959 45730126 45770227 45920301
               47880243 48840187 49000043 48969906 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN