Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1472

   Mesoscale Discussion 1472
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...central to eastern MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271925Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts and small hail will be possible with
   high-based thunderstorms moving east from central to eastern Montana
   into early evening. Lack of greater organization/intensity should
   preclude severe-storm watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A minor perturbation embedded within a moderate
   westerly mid-level flow regime has aided in gradually increasing
   convection across central MT. Much of central/eastern MT has only
   scant to meager buoyancy per 18Z TFX sounding and 19Z mesoanalysis,
   with mid 50s or greater surface dew points confined to the far
   eastern portion of the state. Still, typical inverted-v
   thermodynamic profiles in conjunction with moderate mid-level
   westerlies should aid in easterly progressive storms with a threat
   for isolated severe gusts.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46441107 47561102 47831063 47840823 47820611 47330541
               46410584 45770853 45960995 46441107 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH