Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1469

   Mesoscale Discussion 1469
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Central/southern IN into southern IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271836Z - 272030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts are possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A band of convection is moving eastward across parts of
   west-central IN into southern IL. While this convection is not
   particularly organized, a wind gust to 54 kt and some wind damage
   was recently observed in Mattoon, IL. Additional downstream heating
   and steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support a threat
   for strong to localized severe gusts as these storms move eastward
   this afternoon. Modest unidirectional southwesterly low-level flow
   could support some loosely organized clustering with time, but weak
   vertical shear is currently expected to limit the overall coverage
   and magnitude of the severe threat. Trends will be monitored for any
   uptick in storm organization this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38768694 37978933 38509002 39098872 40298661 40298597
               40218543 39918522 39358585 38768694 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH