Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1467

   Mesoscale Discussion 1467
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Northern IN into parts of Lower MI and far
   northwest OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271710Z - 271915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of wind damage may develop this afternoon.
   Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway along/east of a cold front
   from northern IN into southern/eastern Lower MI. Despite weak
   midlevel lapse rates, continued heating of a richly moist
   environment will result in MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500-2000
   J/kg with time this afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain
   relatively weak, but moderate unidirectional southwesterly flow in
   the 850-700 mb layer will support potential for some storm
   clustering with a threat of scattered damaging winds.  

   Timing of the primary severe threat remains somewhat uncertain. A
   low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough currently over northern IL
   may support additional storm development across northern IN early
   this afternoon, while development farther north along the front into
   Lower MI may be more isolated until mid/late afternoon. Watch
   issuance is possible if a more organized damaging-wind threat
   appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40848726 42288597 43878416 44248364 44368322 44068255
               43398217 42738244 41858289 41618362 40828573 40238715
               40848726 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH