Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1460

   Mesoscale Discussion 1460
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0429 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into far northwestern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262129Z - 262300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms may pose an occasional
   severe gust threat through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms have matured along a confluence
   zone across eastern KS, where MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts 50+
   dBZ echoes well exceeding 30 kft. While vertical wind shear is weak,
   these storms are developing atop a moist surface airmass,
   characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints. Given a well-mixed
   boundary layer, 8 C/km low-level lapse rates are in place, boosting
   MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg. As such, the stronger pulse-cellular and
   multicellular storms will be capable of producing wet downbursts and
   associated strong wind gusts. However, the overall severe threat
   should remain isolated.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37079672 37159695 37309699 37559694 38019676 38469644
               39349600 39539556 39559497 39419451 39099433 38359437
               37959448 37609468 37179523 37019595 37079672 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH