Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1448

   Mesoscale Discussion 1448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0821 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...Southern to southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

   Valid 260121Z - 260315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A loosely organized MCS will migrate southeast into
   southeast and southern Georgia through the evening hours. Downstream
   watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant MCS continues to push
   south/southeast across southern SC. Although most measured wind
   gusts have been in the 40-55 mph range, a few severe gusts have been
   noted along with multiple reports of wind damage. Additionally, new
   convective cores continue to develop immediately behind the outflow
   boundary and are supporting swaths of stronger winds within the
   line. Downstream of the MCS, surface temperatures are falling with
   the onset of nocturnal cooling, but rich low-level moisture
   (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will likely modulate the influence
   of low-level stabilization to some degree. Additionally, a reservoir
   of around 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE remains downstream across southern
   GA that has been relatively untouched by afternoon convection. The
   expectation is that the MCS will likely continue to propagate
   southwestward into this reservoir along a weak confluence axis
   and/or along a sea-breeze boundary moving inland from the coast.
   Damaging gusts with a few severe wind swaths will remain the primary
   hazard. Some uncertainty regarding the longevity of this threat
   remains given the surging outflow and increasing MLCIN heading later
   into the overnight hours, but downstream watch issuance is likely if
   the MCS can maintain intensity over the next hour or so as it nears
   the edge of WW 459.

   ..Moore.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30778378 30878394 31108409 31398419 31788410 32308383
               32788353 33128317 33228290 33198274 32448116 32218102
               31908098 31598129 30718290 30688319 30738368 30778378 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN