Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1446

   Mesoscale Discussion 1446
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 461...

   Valid 252338Z - 260115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 461 continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of additional tornadoes are possible with
   supercells along a warm front over southwestern WI over the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells with a history of tornadoes
   continues to traverse a warm front, along the MN/WI border. Surface
   temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 80s/mid 70s F is contributing to
   1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE on the immediate side of the warm front.
   Latest KARX NEXRAD data shows that the ongoing supercells may be
   crossing to the immediate cool side of the front. Furthermore, the
   warm front becomes more south-southeasterly with eastward extent,
   suggesting that storms moving east to east-northeast will have more
   of a crosswise component of vorticity to ingest, which may lessen
   tornado potential to a degree. Nonetheless, Regional VADs across
   southern WI continue to show strong low-level shear via
   sizeable/curved low-level hodographs. As such, a couple of
   additional tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to
   anchor along the warm front over the next few hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44079186 44209129 43719010 43359002 43219034 43339090
               43459174 44079186 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH