Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1433

   Mesoscale Discussion 1433
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...Much of the Carolinas into northeast GA and far
   southern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251617Z - 251815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...While timing is uncertain, potential for damaging
   downburst/outflow winds and isolated hail will increase through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A volatile thermodynamic environment is in place across
   the Carolinas early this afternoon. Morning soundings across the
   region depict very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a richly moist
   boundary layer, and strong to extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE of
   3000-4500 J/kg) is already in place across the region. 

   With rather nebulous large-scale ascent, storm coverage is somewhat
   uncertain in the short-term, though should generally increase
   through the afternoon. Some initiation is underway near a weak
   surface confluence zone across northeast NC. While deep-layer shear
   is rather weak, the very favorable thermodynamic environment will
   support damaging/potentially severe downbursts. Relatively cool
   temperatures aloft could also support at least a brief hail threat
   with the strongest updrafts. With time, some outflow consolidation
   could occur, resulting in potential for more concentrated swaths of
   wind damage. 

   One or more watches will likely be issued across the region this
   afternoon, though timing is uncertain and related to trends
   regarding storm development and coverage.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   FFC...

   LAT...LON   36807839 36197755 35387689 34547717 33807864 33468021
               33068245 33628292 34358324 35018188 35358144 35778090
               36118042 36477935 36807839 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN