Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1430

   Mesoscale Discussion 1430
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of
   southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

   Valid 242205Z - 250000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat will persist across northeast
   Colorado into adjacent portions of far southwest Nebraska downstream
   of a persistent, organized cluster. Downstream watch issuance is
   possible if this cluster maintains intensity as it exits WW 458.

   DISCUSSION...An organized cluster with a history of producing severe
   winds continues to push to the northeast across northeastern CO.
   Reflectivity and velocity imagery from KTFG shows new updraft
   development along the leading edge of the outflow even as the
   cluster migrates into a somewhat cool/more stable air mass where
   temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s. Recent forecast
   soundings suggest that the downstream thermodynamic conditions will
   continue to support surface-based parcels with only modest
   inhibition (-25 to -50 J/kg), but weak warm air advection across the
   CO/KS/NE tri-state region will support some degree of additional
   destabilization immediately ahead of the cluster. This should help
   maintain storm intensity as it continues to the northeast at least
   for the next couple of hours. Severe winds, most likely between
   55-70 mph, will remain the predominant hazard. Sporadic large hail
   appears possible given the intense updrafts, noted in GOES IR
   imagery, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear that will support this
   threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch
   issuance downstream into southwest NE may be needed if the cluster
   maintains intensity as it exits WW 458..

   ..Moore.. 06/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39840380 40040390 40260406 40410425 40590430 41260350
               41500299 41570274 41570246 41460212 41260187 41070175
               40850172 40620173 40410190 40300211 39730362 39840380 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN