Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1426

   Mesoscale Discussion 1426
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far northeast Illinois into northern
   Indiana...southern Lower Michigan...and extreme northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241736Z - 241930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for isolated damaging gusts will increase through
   the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along the periphery of an
   upper ridge, where moderate buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
   has materialized given robust boundary layer heating. Along the
   periphery of this ridge is modestly strong westerly flow aloft,
   contributing to 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, storms
   that continue to intensify through the afternoon will likely become
   multicells or transient supercells with an isolated damaging gust
   threat. Since the overall severe threat should remain sparse and
   localized, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   42138886 42738608 42858381 42838263 42758254 42618256
               42338291 42168305 41938309 41758305 41648326 41478399
               41218498 41138606 41058703 41118783 41248838 41398881
               42138886 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH