Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1424

   Mesoscale Discussion 1424
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...

   Valid 240042Z - 240215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized severe wind/hail risk will persist for roughly
   the next hour, but the overall severe threat is beginning to wane as
   outflow continues to overspread the region.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KTWX shows convective outflow
   overspreading much of northwest KS as convective clusters continue
   to weaken. Overall convective intensity across eastern KS has
   largely begun to wane as outflow become more widespread, though a
   few localized corridors of severe potential should persist for the
   short term. New thunderstorms developing on the northwest fringe of
   the cold pool are moving out of the warm sector and into a more
   stable air mass. GOES IR imagery shows occasional deep updraft
   pulses, suggesting that a few instances of severe hail and/or a
   strong downburst or two remain possible for the next hour or so.
   Further east closer to the KS/MO border, the eastward propagation of
   the outflow combined with north/northeastward storm motions have
   made it difficult for convection to fully realize the buoyant
   warm-sector environment (best characterized by the recent 00z TOP
   sounding). It is unclear if additional convective development can
   remain rooted near the surface along the leading edge of the outflow
   long enough to pose a severe hail/wind threat, but this remains at
   least a low possibility prior to the onset of nocturnal
   stabilization closer to the 02-03 UTC period.

   ..Moore.. 06/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38759577 38889614 39189648 39309692 39349757 39659788
               39899773 39999725 40069666 40069607 40029549 39929523
               39789503 39409492 38969502 38749530 38759577 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN