Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1421

   Mesoscale Discussion 1421
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0445 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232145Z - 232345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose an isolated
   severe wind and hail risk through the early evening hours. This
   threat should generally remain sufficiently localized to preclude
   watch issuance, but a watch is possible if a more focus corridor of
   severe thunderstorms becomes apparent.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, scattered convection has
   developed along and ahead of a weak cold front from northeast KS
   into far northeast NM. Despite a very buoyant air mass ahead of the
   front (characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg),
   stronger flow aloft remains largely displaced to the northwest
   behind the front. This is limiting deep-layer wind shear to around
   20-25 knots for much of the region, which should favor a mix of
   loosely organized cells/clusters with occasionally robust updrafts
   and/or outflow. Recent convective trends bear this out with only
   sporadic reports of large hail and severe gusts emanating from
   mostly transient convection. While isolated instances of severe hail
   and/or severe winds will remain possible across a broad region, the
   meager deep-layer shear and scattered nature of the convection
   limits confidence in a more widespread severe threat. Nonetheless,
   this environment could support a somewhat more organized cluster or
   two with a more focused severe wind threat if sufficient cold pool
   amalgamation can occur. While this does not appear imminent,
   convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance
   is possible if this scenario begins to emerge.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37579666 36789823 36269956 36150054 36200125 36730177
               37280167 37680115 37810107 39239923 39769832 39939784
               39949730 39819679 39639636 39289604 38919579 38519572
               38019598 37579666 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN