Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1413

   Mesoscale Discussion 1413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0818 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 451...

   Valid 230118Z - 230315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 451 continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue for the next few hours as
   storms move along and just south of the international border in
   north-central Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a supercell over north-central MN
   has reached sufficient intensity to develop a persistent mesocyclone
   with at least one tornado recently reported. To its immediate south,
   additional convective towers continue to percolate, though have not
   yet reached sufficient intensity to pose a robust severe threat.
   However, recent surface observations have shown a northward
   expansion of the warm sector over the past couple of hours
   downstream from this activity. This will maximize storm residence
   time within a very favorable environment for supercellular
   tornadoes. A modest increase in the low-level wind fields associated
   with the deepening surface low has also bolstered effective SRH
   slightly, which will also help maintain the tornado threat. Although
   storm coverage within this environment remains uncertain - GOES
   imagery shows shallow convective towers struggling to overcome
   residual capping within the open warm sector - any cells that can
   mature will likely pose a tornado threat.

   ..Moore.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47749324 47559359 47509393 47619550 47689564 47859574
               48169569 48569550 48889521 49029492 48969464 48789437
               48699388 48679351 48679311 48569302 48249301 47749324 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN