Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1408

   Mesoscale Discussion 1408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

   Valid 222226Z - 230030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few discrete supercells continue across the western
   Nebraska Panhandle, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery shows two discrete
   supercells over Scotts Bluff and Banner counties NE.  These storms
   have formed as lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough
   interacted with deep easterly/upslope flow.  Full sunshine ahead of
   the storms, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s will
   help to maintain the activity for several more hours.  Forecast
   soundings show steep low and mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE,
   along with favorable deep-layer shear for maintaining supercell or
   small bowing structures.  Damaging winds and large hail will remain
   possible.

   Recent HRRR runs are suggesting some potential for southward
   development of this activity in far northern CO, where a similar
   boundary-layer regime is present.  If this occurs, these storms
   would also pose a severe hail/wind risk.  However, the area affected
   would likely be too small to warrant an additional watch.

   ..Hart.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42220369 42530178 42040132 41390193 40710272 40540399
               41390427 42220369 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN