Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1407

   Mesoscale Discussion 1407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado to northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222210Z - 230015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts appear possible later this evening
   as thunderstorms develop over the next couple of hours. Thunderstorm
   coverage remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a
   scattered severe threat becomes apparent.

   DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery continues to show slowly building
   cumulus along a weakly confluent dryline from southwest Nebraska
   into western Kansas and far southeast Colorado. Surface dewpoint
   depressions of 40-45 F and gusts of 35-40 mph on the western fringe
   of the warm sector suggest very deeply mixed boundary layers with
   minimal inhibition. Despite nebulous ascent and somewhat marginal
   buoyancy, a few thunderstorms will likely emerge from within this
   regime over the next couple of hours prior to the onset of nocturnal
   cooling. Moderate flow within the lowest 1-2 km, coupled with
   downdraft accelerations through a deep/dry boundary layer, will
   promote strong to severe downburst wind gusts with any deep
   convection that can emerge. The expectation is that convective
   coverage will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance,
   but trends will continue to be monitored for a more scattered severe
   threat.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   39360192 39910156 40090125 40100079 40010057 39780044
               39590039 39340048 37350160 37120179 37050204 37030232
               37060268 37130292 37250304 37450310 39360192 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN