Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1406

   Mesoscale Discussion 1406
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...southwest to northeast NE and southeast SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 221959Z - 222200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail threats will increase as a corridor of
   scattered thunderstorms form ahead of a dryline, along a slow-moving
   to quasi-stationary front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is underway along the slow-moving
   to quasi-stationary front that arcs across southeast SD into
   southwest NE, ahead of a dryline that has mixed across northwest KS
   and far southwest NE. Initial storm development should occur ahead
   of the dryline/front intersection into central NE where MLCIN is
   minimized, with additional storms rippling north-northeast along the
   front by early evening. Nearly unidirectional south-southwesterlies
   and uniform speeds with height will curtail overall effective bulk
   shear. But this should help enhance growth into multicell clusters
   favorable for producing sporadic severe gusts. Severe hail potential
   may largely be confined to initial storm formation.

   ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40600129 41830003 42769901 43349863 43919807 43919706
               43259707 42589770 41169901 40340062 40600129 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN