Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1404

   Mesoscale Discussion 1404
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...northwest MN and eastern ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221934Z - 222130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat with a few supercells will increase
   during the late afternoon to early evening as surface-based storms
   develop across the Red River Valley through northwest Minnesota. A
   tornado watch issuance is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring across the Red River
   Valley and northwest Minnesota in the wake of earlier elevated
   thunderstorms. While another round of elevated thunderstorms has
   formed well west into the post-frontal airmass across central ND,
   this lobe of large-scale ascent will overspread the downstream
   surface front and trough in the next couple hours. 19Z mesoanalysis
   suggests that MLCIN has weakened. Surface-based thunderstorm
   development by 21-22Z is likely. 

   Weak easterly components to the low-level flow between the surface
   front and trough will support favorable hodograph curvature as flow
   veers to the south and south-southwest aloft. In conjunction with
   optimal temperature-dew point spreads, a corridor of supercell
   tornado potential is anticipated. Otherwise, large hail and isolated
   severe gusts will be possible as storms likely become confined
   closer to the international border this evening.

   ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49329393 48619355 46459670 46289757 46309795 46599838
               47139817 48869639 49359504 49329393 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN