Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1405
1 min read
|
![]() |
Mesoscale Discussion 1405 | |
< Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221950Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a few instances of severe wind/hail will increase through the afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently shown an uptick in intensity across portions of central NM into the TX Trans Pecos, with a cell in Lincoln County, NM showing 40 dBZ echoes at 50 kft. MLCINH is eroding due to strong diurnal heating, which is promoting robust boundary-layer mixing, with 0-3 km lapse rates already approaching the 9-10 C/km range in spots (per 19Z mesoanalysis). Additional storms should continue to develop and intensify this afternoon given persistent diurnal heating, with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak, and given marginal MLCAPE, most storms should be pulse cellular or weakly multicellular. Given steep low-level lapse rates, rapid evaporative cooling with stronger storm cores may result in severe gusts and perhaps a brief instance of hail. Since the severe threat should be isolated, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32810584 34100543 35280483 36230395 36680286 36370216 35720188 34000217 32110303 31180336 30460388 30390462 30860549 31450601 32810584 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |
2025-06-22 19:52:04