June 23, 2025

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1405

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Mesoscale Discussion 1405
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1405
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221950Z - 222115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for a few instances of severe wind/hail will
   increase through the afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated
   enough to preclude a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently shown an uptick in
   intensity across portions of central NM into the TX Trans Pecos,
   with a cell in Lincoln County, NM showing 40 dBZ echoes at 50 kft.
   MLCINH is eroding due to strong diurnal heating, which is promoting
   robust boundary-layer mixing, with 0-3 km lapse rates already
   approaching the 9-10 C/km range in spots (per 19Z mesoanalysis).
   Additional storms should continue to develop and intensify this
   afternoon given persistent diurnal heating, with MLCAPE likely
   exceeding 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak, and given marginal
   MLCAPE, most storms should be pulse cellular or weakly
   multicellular. Given steep low-level lapse rates, rapid evaporative
   cooling with stronger storm cores may result in severe gusts and
   perhaps a brief instance of hail. Since the severe threat should be
   isolated, a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32810584 34100543 35280483 36230395 36680286 36370216
               35720188 34000217 32110303 31180336 30460388 30390462
               30860549 31450601 32810584 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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2025-06-22 19:52:04