Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1405

   Mesoscale Discussion 1405
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221950Z - 222115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for a few instances of severe wind/hail will
   increase through the afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated
   enough to preclude a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently shown an uptick in
   intensity across portions of central NM into the TX Trans Pecos,
   with a cell in Lincoln County, NM showing 40 dBZ echoes at 50 kft.
   MLCINH is eroding due to strong diurnal heating, which is promoting
   robust boundary-layer mixing, with 0-3 km lapse rates already
   approaching the 9-10 C/km range in spots (per 19Z mesoanalysis).
   Additional storms should continue to develop and intensify this
   afternoon given persistent diurnal heating, with MLCAPE likely
   exceeding 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak, and given marginal
   MLCAPE, most storms should be pulse cellular or weakly
   multicellular. Given steep low-level lapse rates, rapid evaporative
   cooling with stronger storm cores may result in severe gusts and
   perhaps a brief instance of hail. Since the severe threat should be
   isolated, a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32810584 34100543 35280483 36230395 36680286 36370216
               35720188 34000217 32110303 31180336 30460388 30390462
               30860549 31450601 32810584 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN