Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1395

   Mesoscale Discussion 1395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

   Areas affected...portions of Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211021Z - 211145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection may occasionally produce hail and
   gusty winds through early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms will develop/move generally east across
   portions of northern/central Lower MI the next several hours. This
   activity is occurring within a moderately unstable and strongly
   sheared airmass. However, strong low-level inhibition means these
   storms will likely remain elevated within the warm advection regime
   on the periphery of the low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse rates,
   supercell wind profiles, and modest instability will still foster
   potential for strong to isolated severe storms produce hail and
   gusty winds the next few hours. Trends will continue to be
   monitored, but a watch is not currently expected.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   46038530 45538336 43968350 43478446 43658517 44378616
               44708636 45198640 46038530 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN