Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1380

   Mesoscale Discussion 1380
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   Areas affected...southeast MN into parts of WI and IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 200544Z - 200745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms will
   develop/persist into the early morning hours. Marginally severe hail
   and strong wind gusts will be possible with these storms.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing within a warm advection regime
   across portions of the MCD area as an 850 mb low-level jet noses
   into IA/southern MN. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft, becoming
   southerly in the low-levels, is support effective shear magnitudes
   greater than 40 kt. This should allow for some organized storm
   structures as convection develops southeast across a modestly
   unstable airmass. Cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -12 C per
   00z regional RAOBs) and steep midlevel lapse rates combined with
   favorable shear will support isolated marginally severe hail. Strong
   low-level inhibition is present given time of day and the cooling
   boundary layer, but any organized bowing segments could produce
   strong gusts as well. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   45529440 45849270 45779062 45218938 44768859 44428840
               44048859 43538934 42919066 42539233 42509321 42659406
               42949429 44079494 44789494 45529440 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN