Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1368

   Mesoscale Discussion 1368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...New Hampshire into western/northern Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191853Z - 192000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch is likely this afternoon as widely scattered to
   scattered storms move northeast. Wind damage and a brief tornado are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface heating has been greater in New Hampshire and
   western Maine. Portions of northern Maine are beginning now
   beginning to heat as low-level cloud cover erodes and the warm front
   lifts into Quebec. Upstream convection has not deepened very
   quickly, particularly in northeast New York and Vermont. The more
   discrete activity in southeast New York into
   Connecticut/Massachusetts has shown marginally more intense/deep
   updrafts. Even with less than ideal thermodynamics, low-level lapse
   rates have steepened where temperatures have risen into the 80s F
   and stronger mid-level ascent continues to approach the Northeast.
   The strongest storms will be capable damaging wind gusts. Low-level
   shear is also sufficient for a brief tornado.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   43187118 42817142 42867228 43537215 44587145 45047144
               46127020 46336996 46346956 46146922 45736940 45176981
               43477104 43187118 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH