Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1358

   Mesoscale Discussion 1358
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into
   northern and middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

   Valid 190137Z - 190300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible with short bowing
   segments within an eastward-advancing QLCS. A tornado is also
   possible, especially over parts of middle TN in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to advance eastward amid a moderately
   buoyant thermodynamic environment. Nocturnal cooling is contributing
   to a stabilizing boundary layer, which may reduce the overall
   robustness of the severe gust threat. Nonetheless, and despite weak
   vertical wind shear (compared to areas farther north), the boundary
   layer remains supportive of additional strong to severe gusts (based
   on modifications of the 00Z BNA observed soundings to match current
   surface observations). A tornado could also occur, especially with a
   trailing supercell in middle TN over the next couple of hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36848426 35888535 35538596 35438668 35488727 35658760
               35788762 36038718 37058584 37968454 38328388 38478304
               38288274 37928280 37468343 36848426 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN