Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1350

   Mesoscale Discussion 1350
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Oklahoma into the eastern
   South Plains of Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181939Z - 182145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail (isolated hail greater than 2 inches) and
   severe wind gusts will be possible with storms developing on an
   outflow boundary. The tornado threat is low, but nonzero,
   conditional upon favorable storm interactions with the boundary. A
   watch is possible for parts of Northwest Texas into southern
   Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite over the
   past several hours have indicated that an outflow boundary from
   morning convection has slowly shifted north into southern Oklahoma
   this afternoon. A weak surface low is also evident in far southwest
   Oklahoma, very near the Red River. Given the amount of
   destabilization that has occurred and the stronger convergence near
   the surface low, it seems likely that a few storms will eventually
   develop later this afternoon. With the upper-level trough moving
   eastward, only modestly enhanced mid-level winds will remain. As
   such, effective shear (30-35 kts) will only be marginally supportive
   of supercells. However, steep mid-level lapse rates (7.8 C/km on the
   18Z observed OUN sounding) and large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
   will support a threat for large/very-large hail and severe wind
   gusts. Coverage of hail greater than 2 inches may only be isolated
   given weak anvil-level flow. The tornado threat appears low on
   account of weak low-level winds, but a storm interacting with the
   outflow boundary would be capable of tornado in that mesoscale
   environment.

   ..Wendt.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34059559 33819742 33799838 33719948 33680006 33700013
               34030058 34530019 35099916 35329773 35369657 35349615
               35249583 35099574 34939567 34389557 34169561 34059559 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN